Game Theory, Behavioral Finance, and Investing: Part 1 of 5

Geoff Considine

*+-Watching the market this year has been like observing an exercise in game theory and behavioral finance, and the two fields are closely related.  Game theory is the study of how a rational person makes decisions in uncertain situations.  As the name suggests, game theory was developed with the intent of developing optimal strategies in… Read More


Sector Watch: Wine, Beer, and Spirits

Geoff Considine

*+-The stocks of companies that produce and distribute alcoholic beverages have dramatically out-performed the broader market both in recent years.  There are many factors that can lead to the relative out-performance of one sector.  Surprisingly, however, so-called ‘sin stocks,’ including those of companies that produce and distribute alcohol, have a long history of delivering high… Read More


The Changing Universe of Public Companies

Geoff Considine

*+-A new article in Knowledge@Wharton highlights a body of research that suggests that the universe of public companies is very different than in the past.  There are, for example, 44% fewer publicly-listed companies on U.S. exchanges than there were only fifteen years ago.  The Wharton article is a review of a range of work, including… Read More


Cheap Money + Share Buybacks = Bull Market?

Geoff Considine

*+-The market rally of the past twelve months may appear somewhat baffling in light of the fact that individual investors have been pulling money out of the market.  The S&P 500 is up 22.5% in the last year, while September marks the 17th consecutive month during which investors took money out of equity mutual funds. … Read More


Sector Watch: Retail REITs

Geoff Considine

*+-Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are companies that own and, typically, manage real estate investments to generate income.  REITs may also invest in mortgage securities (these are called mortgage REITs or mREITs).  REITs may specialize in specific types of properties.  The Folio Investing Retail REIT Folio holds equal-weight allocations to the largest publicly-listed REITs that… Read More


Gaming the Numb3rs

Robert P. Seawright

*+-Tom Stoppard’s Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead  presents Shakespeare’s Hamlet from the bewildered point of view of two of the Bard’s bit players, the comically indistinguishable nobodies who become headliners in Stoppard’s play.  The play opens before our heroes have even joined the action in Shakespeare’s epic. They have been “sent for” and are marking time… Read More


Sector Watch: Spotlight Telecommunications Stocks

Geoff Considine

*+-The telecommunications industry is evolving quickly.  Recent data suggests, for example, that half of all adults in the United States have a tablet or smartphone.  There are many countries that have an average of more than one cell phone line per person.  In the developing economies, cell phones have allowed much broader access to voice… Read More