Factoring Sequence Risk into Retirement Planning

Be sure to factor sequence risk into retirement planning.

When building your retirement portfolio, investing in a routine, systematic way can ensure that you purchase assets at random prices over time. So long as the market moves higher in the long run, any temporary declines, or even major corrections, will provide you with the chance to buy assets on sale. The same cannot be… Read More

Understanding Risk and Setting Realistic Expectations

Know the inherent risk in stock ownership before market volatility hits.

Until the recent global equity sell-off, stocks had been on an upward trajectory for some time, with the S&P 500 Index—a broad measure of U.S. stocks—delivering six straight years of gains. An investor who’d bought shares in an S&P 500 Index fund at the last market bottom, on March 9, 2009 would have seen that… Read More

How Bond Market Investors Cope in a Low-Rate Environment


It’s understandable that bond market investors might be frustrated at this point in time. Most already have lower total return expectations than stock market investors, which they accept in exchange for lower overall levels of risk and regular interest payments. However, the total return expectations within the bond market have become so low that investors… Read More

Is the Fed Really “Stealing from Savers”?


Geoff Considine

In a recent article on MarketWatch, Chris Martenson asserts that the Fed’s low interest rate policy and quantitative easing in recent years is deliberately stealing from savers. This article has elicited a big response, with almost 800 comments and almost 2000 likes on Facebook. The key point of the article is that the Fed’s policy… Read More

Impacts of the U.S. Budget Freeze

Geoff Considine

With the U.S. government failing to reach agreement on budgetary issues and on raising the debt ceiling, there is considerable discussion of what this would really mean.  From what I have read, the issues are quite straightforward.  If the U.S. government does not raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will not have sufficient funds available… Read More

REIT Yield as a Predictor of Future Returns

Geoff Considine

The yield of an asset is a key component of predicting future returns.  This is true for the yield on Treasury bonds as well as the dividend yield for stock indexes.  The yield on aggregate bond indexes is considered a good proxy for future expected returns.  The dividend yield of broad stock indexes has been… Read More

The Yield Paradox

Geoff Considine

I have been struggling to understand a problem that I am going to refer to as the ‘yield paradox.’  Yields for individual asset classes look low.  The 10-year Treasury bond is yielding about 1.9%, and 30-year Treasury bonds are yielding a similarly paltry 3%.  The S&P 500 is yielding 2.1%, which is very low by… Read More

Sector Watch: Municipal Bonds

Geoff Considine

Municipal bonds are issued by states and municipalities and typically have tax advantages relative to other fixed income assets.  In general, income from muni bonds is tax exempt at the federal level and at the state level for investors living in the issuing state.  Municipal bonds have historically been favored by investors in high tax… Read More

The Challenge of Long-Term Income: Part II

Geoff Considine

In Part I of this article, I explained why I have issues with the traditional idea that individuals should provide for their required level of retirement income (beyond what is provided by Social Security and any pensions) entirely with assets with zero risk of loss of principal (e.g. Treasury bonds).  In Part II, I discuss… Read More