Is the Fed Really “Stealing from Savers”?

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Geoff Considine

*+-In a recent article on MarketWatch, Chris Martenson asserts that the Fed’s low interest rate policy and quantitative easing in recent years is deliberately stealing from savers. This article has elicited a big response, with almost 800 comments and almost 2000 likes on Facebook. The key point of the article is that the Fed’s policy… Read More


Impacts of the U.S. Budget Freeze

Geoff Considine

*+-With the U.S. government failing to reach agreement on budgetary issues and on raising the debt ceiling, there is considerable discussion of what this would really mean.  From what I have read, the issues are quite straightforward.  If the U.S. government does not raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will not have sufficient funds available… Read More


REIT Yield as a Predictor of Future Returns

Geoff Considine

*+-The yield of an asset is a key component of predicting future returns.  This is true for the yield on Treasury bonds as well as the dividend yield for stock indexes.  The yield on aggregate bond indexes is considered a good proxy for future expected returns.  The dividend yield of broad stock indexes has been… Read More


The Yield Paradox

Geoff Considine

*+-I have been struggling to understand a problem that I am going to refer to as the ‘yield paradox.’  Yields for individual asset classes look low.  The 10-year Treasury bond is yielding about 1.9%, and 30-year Treasury bonds are yielding a similarly paltry 3%.  The S&P 500 is yielding 2.1%, which is very low by… Read More


Sector Watch: Municipal Bonds

Geoff Considine

*+-Municipal bonds are issued by states and municipalities and typically have tax advantages relative to other fixed income assets.  In general, income from muni bonds is tax exempt at the federal level and at the state level for investors living in the issuing state.  Municipal bonds have historically been favored by investors in high tax… Read More


The Challenge of Long-Term Income: Part II

Geoff Considine

*+-In Part I of this article, I explained why I have issues with the traditional idea that individuals should provide for their required level of retirement income (beyond what is provided by Social Security and any pensions) entirely with assets with zero risk of loss of principal (e.g. Treasury bonds).  In Part II, I discuss… Read More


The Challenge of Long-Term Income: Part I

Geoff Considine

*+-Portfolio Income: The Trouble With Treasury Bonds The current economic environment is making it very hard for investors to generate reasonable levels of income through traditional means such as bond ladders.  While it is always dangerous to suggest that ‘it’s different this time,’ I believe that we are facing some unprecedented conditions that require new… Read More


Why Bond Yields Scare Me More Than Friday the 13th

Geoff Considine

*+-Stock investors generally don’t have much to fear on Friday the 13th. Historically, Friday the 13th is a relatively calm day for stocks. Jason Zweig, who writes The Wall Street Journal’s Intelligent Investor column, says it’s usually a good day for investors and says superstition about trading on this supposedly unlucky day is one of… Read More


Dividend Stocks vs. Bonds: Are They Worth the Risk?

Geoff Considine

*+-One of the recurring themes in the financial press in recent years is a warning to income-oriented investors not to pile into dividend-paying stocks to boost portfolio income. The Wall Street Journal has a recent article on this topic titled, “Why Dividend Stocks Aren’t the New Bonds.”  This article is motivated by the fact that… Read More